What Now?

Michael Tomasky in The New Republic asks:

Why Does No One Understand the Real Reason Trump Won?

He goes on to assert that:

"The answer is the right-wing media. Today, the right-wing media—Fox News (and the entire News Corp.), Newsmax, One America News Network, the Sinclair network of radio and TV stations and newspapers, iHeart Media (formerly Clear Channel), the Bott Radio Network (Christian radio), Elon Musk’s X, the huge podcasts like Joe Rogan’s, and much more—sets the news agenda in this country. And they fed their audiences a diet of slanted and distorted information that made it possible for Trump to win."

and, "...I’ve written this before, but I’m going to keep writing it until people—specifically, rich liberals, who are the only people in the world who have the power to do something about this state of affairs—take some action."

That observation about the tidal wave of right-wing media is not inaccurate.  I would suggest however, that it leaves something to be desired as the basis for an action plan in the moment. It seems to me that focus on media is something of a distraction right now, and that it is a prescription mostly for tinkering with the status quo. It also overlooks the fact that fascist regimes of the past achieved power without the benefit of social media.

What is most needed right now is a strategy for survival, including identification of the most obvious threats and feasible plans for harm mitigation.  Rather than trying to build a bigger and better social media response, financial support would be better devoted right now to supporting immigrant defense organizations.

There is no question that Trump and his allies will be working to put the right-leaning billionaires like Musk in charge of the country.  However, that is a long, slow process.  In the near term, the executive powers available to the Presidency will enable an immediate massive assault against millions of immigrant families.

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See also: Rebecca Solnit on Hope in the Dark ( A podcast at The Nation)

Biden is still the President

 There is a very long list of initiatives available to Biden in these final days of his term in office.  What is actually attempted will depend mostly on feasibility.  My hope would be that the emphasis would be on pushing for a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon, and on doing whatever is possible to lessen the impact of Trump's attack on immigrants.

An overview of the possibilities for executive action is available in an article in  The Nation:

Executive Actions Biden Could Take

Bernie's thoughts on the choice, including Gaza and Lebanon

 

How can I vote for Kamala Harris if she supports Israel’s war? Here is my answer

Bernie Sanders

A Response

 I've been getting half a dozen emails daily from the Harris-Walz campaign asking for money.

I decided it was time for a reply:

 

 

 

The VP Debate

 I doubt anyone will claim that the needle was moved in either direction by the performance of the VP candidates in terms of the election outcome.  Vance may have earned himself a little less critical assessment by the "undecideds".  The thing is that he had a very low bar to clear.  All he had to do was not spout the wild lies about immigrants eating pets to look more like a normal person.  It was unsurprising that he also carried forward Trump's waffling about abortion, apparently betting on the idea that Americans' memory is already foggy about the fact that Trump packed the Supreme Court to undo women's right to chose.  He may be right with that assumption.

A Platform for Democrats

 Bernie has fleshed out a platform for Kamala and the Democrats emphasizing urgent income and health care reforms.  See:

Kamala Harris was great in the debate. Will that be enough to win?

NOAH BERGER | Credit: AFP via Getty Images

And the Winner is...

 In the debate it seems to me that Kamala clearly came out ahead in that she spoke to those in the middle who may be the ones to decide the election outcome.  She also did a good job of getting under Trump's skin with reminders of Trump's compulsive lying, his legal and ethical vulnerabilities, and his waffling about his abortion stance.

Trump stuck to his script pretty well, emphasizing those issues which he thinks favor his chances.  However, he seemed unable to resist the bizarre extremes believable only to his faithful followers such as the stories about people's pets being eaten, or the extravagant and unsupported claims about migrant criminality.

The debate is not the election, and it alone will not be determinant in the final outcome.  Trump has unlimited financial support which will help to produce the appearance of a more coherent platform in the time remaining.

Harris made some unforced errors which she may be penalized for.  She could have taken a lot of wind out of the attacks on her stance on fracking by just pointing out that the advances in green tech will gradually make the phase-out of coal and oil inevitable.

The Harris response on gun violence was woefully weak.  The only response she came up with was a statement that both she and Walz are gun owners!   No mention of the most recent school massacre?  That is quite a missed opportunity.

Harris elected to stick with the Biden's position of calling for a ceasefire in Gaza without backing that up with any proposals for U.S. actions that could actually force a stop to the indiscriminate bombing.  Unless she can make at least some move in the direction of real action, she is endangering the support of people like me for whom Gaza is a high priority.

Kamala may have tipped the scale slightly in her favor with this night's performance.  However, as Hillary showed us, just winning the popular vote - even by over a million or two - is not enough in our electoral system.

UPDATE:

Lots of media commentary contrasting the Harris and Trump performances.  The best I saw was from Ben Burgis  at The Jacobin.  He recognized the superior showing by Harris, but also put her performance into the larger context of American society and politics:

...We live in a profoundly unequal and militaristic society. America is the only developed country where cash-strapped diabetics die because they try to ration out their insulin. Our billionaires take private space flights while our working class is one of the only in the world that isn’t guaranteed so much as a single day per year of paid vacation. And as Americans argue about what to read into the tea leaves of the latest polls from Pennsylvania, US-supplied bombs are dismembering children in Gaza...

Day 4 - Moving Along

Overall I thought the Democrats did a pretty good job of getting their act together on short notice. Now they'll have just a couple months to cope with the fact that Trump has been campaigning ever since he lost to Biden.

Of the last night's presentations the gun violence segment was moving and effective.

A lot of New Mexicans may be disappointed with a muddled opportunity for the country to hear about Interior Secretary Deb Haaland's time in the Biden administration.  As was the case with Governor Lujan Grisham, Haaland was given a cheerleader role to fulfill which seemed to make her uncomfortable. Perhaps she will have a place in a Harris administration, or maybe she'll just go back home and run for Governor of New Mexico.

A bigger disappointment was the treatment of the concerns of the Uncommitted. It was not unexpected in a way because Biden is still the President, and Harris is still a part of that Administration; she is not in a position to break with the Biden policy right now.  However, Harris as the Party's nominee is ultimately in charge of what happens in the Convention.  So, the conclusion is inescapable that she backed the decision to deny any kind of on-stage presence of a Palestinian-American to make a case for the people of Gaza.

Also, I'm curious about what others thought of the Gretchen Whitmer presentation. My immediate reaction was that it was a bit too slick, and without much substance for someone who is politically ambitious.  She has shown some courage and skill as Governor.  Probably not a good idea to judge her prospects by one speech.

Day 3, Almost There

 Tell me why the Democrats have kept trotting out Bill Clinton for each of these events.  He had nothing useful to say, but he droned on.

Oprah talked too long as well, but she had the crowd with her.

Midway through the night, Hakim Jeffries and Stevie Wonder briefly made it all seem worthwhile.

Pete Buttigieg was given a chance to tell his own story.  One wonders where he goes next.

Walz was corny, as scripted, but he kept his comments mercifully short.

Day 2 Impressions

 Bernie, Bernie, Bernie.  He gave his standard stump speech we have all heard.  That's ok because the truth does not change, and Bernie is the only one who will stand up and tell it.  He clearly laid out the targets of change needs and pointed to the real solutions. He challenged everyone - Harris included - to respond to the slaughter in Gaza.  

Michelle Obama was spectacular, a superstar.  Barack gave a display of his usual and excellent oratorical skills, but delivered nothing new or challenging.  It was a reminder of how much fun it was to have a combination of intelligence and style in the White House. (Vinson Cunningham's take on the Obamas' performances is worth a read: The Obamas’ Rousingly Pragmatic Call to Action at the D.N.C.)

For New Mexicans the presentation by NM Governor, Michelle Lujan Grisham, was a disappointment.  She was given a cheerleader role which she is totally incapable of delivering.  She is smart and tough and capable of much more that was shown that night.  She has had a falling out with her own party at home, so hopefully she will get a job in the Harris administration that fits her skill set.

Following Lujan Grisham was Angela Alsobrooks, a candidate for the Senate from Maryland.  She gave a terrific presentation and is someone to watch whether she wins this time around or not.

And what of Buttigieg and Haaland?  They are both highly competent and articulate Cabinet members and should be given a chance to speak about their areas of expertise.

Day One

 The New Republic highlighted the main take-away from the Convention's first night: Women Stole the Show on Night One of the Democratic Convention.

Kamala, AOC and Hillary got big applause.

Biden's wife and daughter made excellent presentations.

I didn't have the stamina left to listen to Biden when they finally got around to him.  He seemed in good form, but he looked constantly angry.

The media carefully avoided showing anything of the thousands of pro-Palestinian protestors outside.

Biden's Last Chance

 Palestinians continue to die under Israeli bombs and from lack of food, shelter and health care. Kamala Harris as President may follow a different course than Biden has taken, but the election is still months away. How many people will die in Gaza before then?  Surely, it will be in the thousands if there is no ceasefire.

One thing to bear in mind is that Biden is still the President.  Harris can express discomfort at the situation, but Biden is in a position to do something about it, and he himself has nothing to lose by taking action. It would be a chance for him to erase some of the stain on a record of accomplishment in regard to many domestic issues.

Damage Control

 One New Mexico Senator and one House Democrat have called for Biden to step down.
 

Bernie and AOC have chosen to support Biden in exchange for some campaign messaging they like, and which may make Biden more palatable to younger voters.

Some big money donors are reportedly threatening to withhold their big bucks, not only from Biden's campaign, but also from those further down the line who support Biden's continuing with his candidacy. If true, that could be the deciding factor.

The headline at The Nation is "Kamala Harris for President".

Nancy Pelosi is reportedly in favor of an "open convention", apparently signaling less than enthusiastic support for the current Vice President to step up.

In the media. the names of a gaggle of governors are being mentioned, with Newsom and Whitmer leading the pack.

Newsom has made himself somewhat unpopular in his own state.

Whitmer, according to her recent book, is playing the long game.

Biden is either slightly or significantly behind Trump in the polls. The pretenders seem to be in that same boat at the moment.

There is an article in Saturday's Albuquerque Journal headlined: "Biden says he'll return to campaign next week". It is next to the Obituaries.  Maybe not a coincidence.

UPDATE 7/22/24:

• Pelosi  has fully endorsed Harris.
• Obama, Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries  are still sitting on their hands.

and at The Intercept:

Biden Should Have Quit Over Gaza, but His Exit Could Be an Inflection Point
Prem Thakker
    Kamala Harris is less burdened by Biden’s disastrous support for Israel’s war, sparking some hope in pro-Palestine advocates.

The Real Joe

 I think a lot of people hold two rather incompatible views about Biden.  On the one hand he is seen is an old guy who isn't doing badly for his age.  On the other, he is stubbornly sticking to a course that will tank his legacy and doom the country.

Some insight into how the second assessment is the correct one are to be found in a Guardian Article, 

We Learned Everything We Needed to Know About Biden in 1988.

The concluding paragraph:

"... But Biden appears to have failed to heed a lesson his mother imparted to him, according to Cramer: “The most important was: tell the truth, and do what you promised.” Biden in 2020 promised to be a “bridge” or “transition” candidate, reportedly telling his advisers he wouldn’t seek a second term, and now is failing to face—and tell—the truth about his obvious cognitive decline, about his historically low approval rating, and the widespread view among voters that he should step aside. The world at 81 years old looks very different from when he was 44, and his deep-seated character traits now have hardened into something quite different. His gritty determination looks like blind obstinacy, his boundless belief in himself seems like arrogant self-regard, and his attempt to bend the world to his will appears like a delusion of grandeur."

Dementia or Demagoguery

 What a sad dilemma the two major political parties have presented us with. The most revealing news about the situation seems to be the reported withdrawal of support for Biden by a couple billionaires.  Trump's billionaires seem still to be happy with their choice.

The nail in the coffin of U.S. Democracy was the Supreme Court's 2010 decision in the Citizen's United case.

As is often the case, Robert Reich and I are on the same page:

"... The fact is, only one small group of people in the US has the power to push Joe Biden out of the race. Who are they? The major donors to the Democratic party...

... In truth, the Democratic party is little more than a national fundraising machine, as is the Republican party... "

Looking for Light at the Tunnel's End

 Election results in France and Great Britain provide a couple bright points in an otherwise dark present.  The French fended off a right wing takeover of the government.  The Brits turned the page on fourteen years of a conservative created disaster which included Brexit.  So, it is encouraging that there are places still where sanity survives.

While the U.S. thus has some places to look at for inspiration going forward, the likely future still looks very threatening.  It can't surprise anyone that Trump has gained significant ground in the polls.  Biden, of course, is at the center of concern, but it has to be admitted that the current situation is not just on Biden's back.

The Democratic Party is dysfunctional.  The issue of Biden's competency did not suddenly appear out of nowhere, but must have been very obvious to party insiders for a long time.  Some are speaking out now, but it seems too late now to turn around the damage, and even putting up Kamala or someone else seems likely to cause as many problems as might be solved.  

That said, it still seem to me to be worthwhile to find someone other than Biden to confront Trump.  Even though the Democrats are likely to lose in November, at least they would have the needed motivation and a chance to address the fundamental weaknesses of the party and the country's flawed democracy.

Looking Back, Thinking Ahead

 People who think Biden, after his disastrous debate performance, still has a chance of prevailing in November need to take a look back at 2016.  Hillary Clinton was not old or mentally compromised and she was a sharp debater.  She was not my preferred candidate, but I voted for her and thought there was no way the country would accept Trump as President; he was just as awful as he is now and he ran with the same platform he is pushing today.  In spite of that, and the fact that Hillary won the popular vote by 2.7 million, Trump triumphed.

Given Biden's determination to stay in the race it seems prudent now to formulate some strategies for resistance after Trump again occupies the White House.  Priorities need to be established based on threat levels for specific groups and leaders need to be identified and supported.

Biden's Opportunity

 Joe Biden achieved his life's ambition when he became President.  To lose now in a second-term attempt can only tarnish his accomplishment and, given his debate performance, losing to Trump in November is the highly likely outcome of continuing a run for a second term.

The smart move now for Biden in terms of leaving with a record of many accomplishments would be to resign before it is too late to give a replacement a fighting chance. There is certainly no shortage of candidates with the energy and debate skills to confront Trump's endless stream of transparent lies.

There are, of course, no guarantees that any Democratic candidate could make up the lost ground now.  What seems certain, however, is that turning over the job to a new generation of leadership now is a step in the right direction for Democrats regardless of the 2024 election's outcome.

It is worthwhile to look at the previous resignations for guidance to avoid the many pitfalls.   Johnson's choice to back the candidacy of his Vice President, Hubert Humphrey, brought on the disastrous Chicago convention and an electoral loss. And, of course, it is important not to forget the assassinations of the Kennedys and King given the current climate of violence which Trump has encouraged at every opportunity.

• David Remnick says what needs to be said the The New Yorker.
• The Guardian view on Joe Biden: Democrats must seize the wheel, not drift to disaster

Biden's Failure

He mumbled incoherently.

He failed to call out Trump on the ridiculous lies and claims about migrants.

He made no mention of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza or the need to hold Israel accountable for waging a genocidal war.

A message for Joe

 Robert Reich, in today's Guardian, has a few suggestions for what Biden might want to say in this evening's State of the Union address.  Reich's list is essentially an outline for a coherent Democratic Party platform based on FDR's 1936 summary of his first term accomplishments.  I thought it was a good list as far as it went.  Missing was any mention of Gaza, or the complicity of the U.S. military-industrial complex in the ongoing Genocide.  We'll see what Joe has to say on those topics.