A way out for Joe

 Biden's second round of Covid suggests the possibility for an early, graceful exit from the Presidency.  Once the mid-terms are over he could just announce that his health adds too much uncertainty to his continuation in office.  That opens the way to an orderly Constitutional transition to the Vice-President's ascension to power. Kamala Harris would then have the chance to show what her real capabilities are to govern.  Even if she does pretty well over the following two years there would likely be some stiff competition in the primaries for 2024, but there seems no more danger in that for Democrats than if Joe were going for a second term.

New Mexico True

New Mexico is a violent state. It ranks among the worst for women murdered by men, child abuse and neglect are almost twice as common as they are nationwide, and its rate of suicide is one of the highest of any state. Last year, Albuquerque’s homicide rate shattered previous records, a 46% jump from 2020, and the state’s reached heights not experienced since 1986.  (A Missing Ingredient, The NM Political Report)

 New Mexico ranks at the top of quite a few lists of social disfunction, including violence and suicide.  That dubious honor will figure prominently in the State's upcoming elections, including that for the governor. The main remedy which will be proposed and debated by all candidates will be a higher rate of incarceration of offenders.  

If the politicians' knee-jerk rhetoric about crime and violence had any validity, one would expect that the U.S., with both the most people in jail and the highest rate of imprisonment of any country, ought to be one of the safer places to reside on the planet.  Similarly, it might seem logical to conclude that New Mexico's great increase in incarcerations over the past forty years should have substantially reduced crime and violence.

The actual trajectory of crime and violence in New Mexico and the U.S. belies the reigning political philosophy.  

The above cited article  in the NM Political Report looks at two potent contributors to the State's out of control crime and violence: the association of alcohol consumption with violence, and the intertwined issue of childhood trauma.  The assembled facts and analysis are worth considering.

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Update:

Ted Alcorn has written an excellent followup to the above, Every door is the right door, with a very optimistic report on the prospects for improved access to effective alcohol abuse counseling.

Networking

 

The rapid pace of technology development means that the associated gadgets, be they cameras or computers, lose value very quickly.  By the time my family settled in southern New Mexico in the late 1980s I was able to pick up an Osborne portable computer identical to the one I had used in Idaho for a fraction of its original price.  The Osborne had limited capacities and capabilities compared to the newer machines by then, but the bundled software still made it quite useful.  Also, accessories such as printers and modems had become much more affordable.  

The function of the modem was to transform the digital signals produced by a computer into analog pulses that could be transmitted over phone lines, and to then take the incoming analog stream and turn it back into something useable to the receiving computer.  That process opened the possibility of enabling and managing communications through the computer.

By the time I got my first 300 baud modem connected to my second-hand Osborne computer several computer hobbyists around Las Cruces were running electronic bulletin board systems (bbs) to which I could connect and exchange text messages.  The actual product was still just blocky characters on a green screen, but for me it was an immensely thrilling experience, a manifestation of what had been up to then no more than a sci-fi fueled fantasy.

While it was possible to communicate through the phone system with bulletin board systems anywhere the wires went, long distance charges made that possibility impractical for the average enthusiast like me.  What changed everything was the rapid development of networks connecting computer bulletin boards world wide. What made those wide-area connections affordable were software innovations including data compression and automatic scheduling which transmitted stored messages and files in very short bursts late at night when long-distance phone rates were low.

Fidonet was the most successful of the amateur wide-area networks. The software was open-source, distributed at no cost and could be run on just about any computer available at the time including my old Osborne.  It did not take me long to set up my own Fidonet node at home, and I also started talking about the potential that such technology might have for contributing to the empowerment of people working in social services organizations of all kinds.

The Fidonet Logo

One person for whom I demonstrated the Fidonet system was a professor of social work at New Mexico State University who was also the head of the local branch of the National Association of Social Workers (NASW).  He immediately appreciated the potential of the system to make connections with colleagues statewide and nationally and suggested that together we could develop a grant proposal supporting the building of a social services oriented computer network for the state NASW chapter.  

Our proposal won quick approval from the NASW and we were able to purchase an IBM clone computer to host a Fidonet node which I set up in the professor's office.  I spent a lot of time there at the university assisting with presentations and tutorials, but the actual operation of the network for which I was responsible could be accomplished in my spare time from home using my old Osborne.  I did eventually get myself a computer similar to the one running the NASW system and finally retired the old Osborne.

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Update:

An article on The Nation takes up the thread of this post with a closer look at computer networking via modems and telephone lines prior to the development of the Internet and the World Wide Web.  Historian Jacob Bruggeman interviews Kevin Driscoll about his book, The Modem World.

The Rio Grande

 This is the first time in the fourteen years we have lived here that I have seen the river run dry at Albuquerque.

Digital Dawn

 My introduction to computers took place in the early 1980s in an unlikely setting, a commercial trout farm beside the Snake River not far downstream from Twin Falls, Idaho.  I had spent the morning with the pond crew up to my waist in water, scooping up market-ready trout with long-handled nets and dumping them into a tank truck for transport to the processing facility.

By noon, the crew members, all still in their chest-high rubber waders, were eating lunch in a small break room when one of the crew walked in with a tiny computer he had assembled from a kit; it was a Timex-Sinclair 1000.  It was just a flat black box about the size of a square dinner plate with a membrane keyboard. The computer owner, a burly Indian kid not long out of high school, connected the Timex to the break room's TV set and proceeded to type out some words which appeared in blocky characters on the screen.  It seemed like magic.

There were a couple computer stores in Twin Falls, but I think I had to get my Timex by mail order. By the time I got mine it was already less than a hundred dollars and it was received  fully assembled. Programs could be manually typed into the computer or loaded from a portable audio tape player. Program execution was through a simple version of the BASIC programming language. I had some fun with simple game programs, but soon ran up against the limited capabilities of the machine which motivated me to acquire some expansion accessories including a memory module and a little thermal printer.

The growth of my interest in computers coincided with some changes in my job duties at the fish farm. My boss saw that a guy in his forties with a background in desk jobs was not really cut out for the heavy manual work on the ponds.  He transferred me to an indoor facility where it was my job to oversee the development of the trout from the egg stage to being big enough to go into the outdoor ponds. I think I only worked at that for a few months before an opening appeared in the main admin office that directed the operations of a couple production facilities.

There was a computer in the admin office that was used for book-keeping and for generating feeding schedules for the developing fish; it was about the size of an upright piano and it operated with punched paper tape programs. My job was to collect some of the data to feed to the computer including pond oxygen and stocking levels, and to make the results available to the managers of the two farm sites.

A little research into fish farming techniques showed me that the algorithms for calculating feeding and growth rates on the office computer could easily be implemented in BASIC on my tiny Timex.  When I demonstrated that to the accountant he passed along the information to the owner, Earl Hardy, who then put me in charge of assembling and distributing all the data needed for daily operations.  He also asked me what kind of computer upgrade from the Timex would help to get the job done.

There were some slick looking IBM desktops on the market at that time, but I decided something more portable would be better as I had to travel often between two farms located several miles apart to gather and input data.  What I came up with was an Osborne I computer.  The machine weighed about twenty-five pounds; it had keyboard built into the case cover and there was a five-inch diagonal monochrome screen.  The operating system was CP/M, and programs and data were stored on 5.25 inch floppy disks. What really made the whole thing useful was the included bundle of programs which were actually worth more than the hardware; they were WordStar for word processing and the SuperCalc spreadsheet program.  

I trundled the Osborne back and forth between farm sites for about a year.  The firm's accountant and the owner were happy enough with the product of my work, but it was not very satisfying to me.  The farm managers tended to conduct operations based on their experience and gut instincts rather than on the Osborne's dictates, and the data I had to work with was often neither accurate nor timely.  So, when Margaret got a scholarship to pursue a Master's in Social Work at Eastern Washington University I was not unhappy to leave the fish farms and the Osborne behind.  

A Job for a Couple Old Guys

 The goal of Net Neutrality is to stop the trend toward the Internet being divided into two lanes: a fast one that gives speedy access to the one percent along with big bucks for the big Internet Service Providers,  and a slow one for the rest of us.  Biden advocated for Net Neutrality in his campaign and made some moves in that direction early on, but his nomination for the deciding FCC post has been stalled in the Senate since January.

A Trump-era bureaucrat, Ajit Pai, undid FCC oversight of net neutrality issues; he was subsequently booted, but the agency is now impotent because of a 2-2 commission tie which can't be fixed given the stalling of Biden's nomination for a fifth FCC commissioner.  A bill to replace bureaucratic oversight with a net neutrality law was crafted by Ed Markey (D-MA) and Ron Wyden (D-OR) and it appeared to have the votes for passage by June.  And then Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT), who is 82, fell and broke his hip.

So, hope is not dead for an Internet that serves the interest of all of us, but time is running out.  It may just be a matter of getting Sen. Leahy out of bed before the November mid-terms. (Give him a call, Joe.)

Some Net Neutrality Links:

Electronic Frontier Foundation

The Verge

The Democrats' Dilemma

"As a 76-year-old let me say: Joe Biden is too old to run again"
Robert Reich

Given Reich's credentials it seems that Joe's continuation into a second term is nearly unimaginable, or that anyone in the Party leadership would seriously try to refute Reich's proposition as put forth in his latest Guardian column.

I hope Reich will take the next logical step and share some ideas in subsequent columns about what characteristics a candidate for the Presidency should have beyond youth.

At this stage of the game, with the election two years down the road, specific names are probably inappropriate. It is not too early, though, for a vigorous national conversation about what kind of character is demanded by the country's highest office and what goals and policies will point us toward a desirable future for our children.

The Republican Dilemma

 It appears there are at least a couple dozen Republicans who think they could mount a viable presidential candidacy.  It seems certain that none of them thinks it would be a good idea for Trump to be a 2024 candidate.  And yet none at this point can publicly embrace that position.  I think what we can expect is that all the potential candidates will enthusiastically back Trumpian policies, but you will never hear "Trump" from their mouths.

At some point, though, there will have to be a declaration of candidacy and that is where there will be some intense negotiations about who gets endorsed and what the price will be.  Given his massive ego, Trump may still  believe he could run in 2024, but it seems increasingly unlikely that his party will see that as an option if they want to win.  Ultimately, it seems Trump must settle for the role of kingmaker with the promise of a pardon if the January 6 committee succeeds in mounting an indictment. 

I suppose there is an outside chance that Pence could do an end run.  That seems like the outcome that Trump would most want to avoid because Pence will not be looking for an endorsement and Trump will have no leverage to ensure a pardon.  A couple other people may possibly also fit into that scenario such as Nikki Haley and Mitt Romney.

And then this from Wyoming:

Numerous Cheney supporters expressed hope that the congresswoman’s political career will merely enter another chapter if she loses to Hageman, managing their expectations for the near term while also predicting that she will run for president in 2024 no matter what.

Stay tuned.

Looking Ahead

 There has not been a lot in the January 6 Hearings that seems surprising in regard to Trump's personality and behavior.  He is revealed as a rather typical bully with a very limited skill set.  Pundits often marvel at his successful manipulation of social media, but that seems to me to be mostly a product of the lack of any humility or ethical restraints.

What has impressed me are the hearing committee members.  They are smart and very articulate.  Some of that is carefully  crafted theater, but you can't fake the fundamentals.  Mostly, they are also young compared to the leadership of both parties.  So it seems a sure thing we will be seeing more of them in coming years.  Of course, whether this group will exercise a decisive influence on the course the country takes remains to be seen.

Wakeup Call

 

The Andrews Sisters

A three-hour hearing to tell the story about the extreme right-wing involvement in January 6 was a lot to sit through.  How effective is such a presentation as opposed to just publishing an account in print or online?  I am doubtful that the hearings will turn the tide against a mid-term win for the Republicans.  It may, however, contribute to moving the GOP toward someone other than Trump in 2024.  

Choosing the Right Comparison

  Supporters of a Fight to Final Victory strategy for Ukraine may be tempted to call forth the memory of Neville Chamberlain and Munich.  That, however, was a very different time from where we all find ourselves now.  The Bomb hangs over every decision on all sides.  The NATO allies are not going to put boots on the ground or supply weapons to Ukraine with a cross-border reach.  Russia is dominated by a man who has no regard for his soldiers or his people, let alone for the victims of his aggression.

In June Yanis Varoufakis looked to history for guidance on how to proceed toward a resolution of the war that Ukraine's supporters should support:

In 1943, progressives had a moral duty to dismiss calls for a negotiated settlement with Hitler. Cutting a deal with the Nazis to end the carnage would have been unforgivable. Civilized people had only one option: to keep fighting until Allied troops stood over Hitler’s Berlin bunker. Today, by contrast, it would be a grave error to aim for a final military victory over Russia and to dismiss those of us calling for an immediate negotiated peace

Read the full article for a clear eyed analysis of today's choices and consequences.

Buyback

 Albuquerque saw a successful buyback effort which took hundreds of guns off the street.  It may not be a big part of a total solution to the gun epidemic, but it seems very likely that some lives were saved.

I'm wondering if such a strategy might be adopted on an international level, substituting weapons buybacks for the usual forms of economic aid.  It seems like it would be particularly appropriate to require the arms manufacturers to put up the money.

What will it take?

 6 dead, dozens wounded in shooting at Highland Park Fourth of July parade; 22-year-old ‘person of interest’ identified, being sought

Conveniently Overlooking the Obvious

 

Columnist,Geoge Will, posted a lengthy opinion piece today about the recent Supreme Court decision absolving the high school coach of any wrongdoing for praying on the football field at the beginning of a game.  Here's the gist of it in the last paragraph:

"...The court's decision for the football coach should cause timorous adults and the fragile young people they shape to stop fueling today's cancel culture and the demands for "safe spaces."  Mere exposure to another's belief does them no injury."

So, there you have it with no need to wade through Will's tortuous argument.  

The obvious part is the unspoken word, *Christian*.  Had the kneeling coach been a Moslem, a Jew, a BLM activist, or a Marxist it is a pretty sure thing that Will would not have been quite so generous in calling for respect of "another's belief".  Ditto for the Supremes.