Ukraine

The whistleblower report is public and the congressional hearings are under way.  The whistleblower clearly has high level access to White House activities and has conducted a thorough initial investigation, interviewing many individuals with direct knowledge of events around interactions of the President and his administration with Ukrainian officials.

The hearings will bring out many additional details as the people indicated in the report are identified and brought in to testify.  However, the concise report really lays out the major accusations quite well.  The real battles will now be to control the media narrative while also pressuring members of congress to support or oppose impeachment.

The Democrats still need a few more votes to move forward to impeachment.  There are a number of Dem members of congress who have voiced opposition to impeachment, most of whom are in districts with a large contingent of Trump supporters.  A good example is Xochitl Torres Small who narrowly took a seat in southern New Mexico that has long been held by Republicans.  Another notable holdout on impeachment is Tulsi Gabbard* of Hawaii who recently qualified for the third debate.

Helpful commentary on the unfolding Ukraine story is in progress at fivethirtyeight.com.

* "Representative Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii endorsed the impeachment inquiry against President Trump on Friday..." (nytimes)

Nobel candidate?

wikipedia

She has already received many honors for her environmental leadership, and it would be hard to dispute the impact on world opinion of Greta Thunberg.  That this young woman can consistently demonstrate such an astounding ability to articulate her advocacy for action on climate change along with great courage seems to make the choice for the Nobel obvious.
 
    I'll freely admit some bias in favor of Thunberg due in part to memories of my own cluelessness at her present age.  Of course I was not alone in that affliction.  I don't recall any of my teenage 1950s peers having any concerns beyond that generated by exaggerated self-absorbtion. The Vietnam war woke me up, but it was still a long struggle that extended well past the 1960s before my consciousness of social and political issues took on any coherent form.

Trump's Strategy

Trump's recent visits to Democratic majority states raise some interesting questions about his support for his 2020 run and his opposition.  His stated reasons focus on the possibility of flipping those states to the red column.  That seems like a pretty unlikely scenario and it is hard to believe Trump - and even more so his advisers - really consider such a development at all likely.

There is also the fact that Trump's rhetoric at his campaign events in those blue states really is not effectively aimed at broadening his base.  Trump continues to harp on imaginary economic gains associated with his policies and he continues to rant about immigrants and non-white groups - all the themes that are red meat for his base.  In the case of California Trump has also prefaced his visit with attacks on the state's emission standards and on San Francisco's homeless policies.

What we have not seen in recent political commentary is any assessment of what Trump's visits to the ultra-blue states have had on the opposition.  While Trump's words and actions seemed mostly designed to push the Dem's noses into the dirt, it seems possible that he could easily be hardening the opposition's determination to make Trump a one-termer.  It would be interesting to see the results of polling immediately before and after Trump's visits to New Mexico and California.  I could not find any such fine-grained analysis in progress right now, but maybe the pollsters will decide to play catch-up.

Lessons

Matthew Reichbach - NM Political Report

While Trump harangued his crowd on Albuquerque's west side we sat on the grass at Tiguex Park and listened to our local Dem politicos voice their opinions about Trumpworld.  It was a pleasant way to spend the late afternoon.

Andy Lyman - NM Politial Report

Nothing much new from either side of the long distance debate.  The main thing I took away from the day was that it is a lot easier task to tear things down by appealing to the country's base tendencies than it is to fix and build a better society.

If We Must Die

Smithsonian

There is a fine remembrance today in the Dailykos by Denise Oliver Velez about the bombing on Sept. 15, 1963 of the 16th Street Baptist Church in Birmingham, Alabama.  The article includes a marvelous poem by Claude McKay.

With Trump about to descend on Albuquerque on Monday, reading the article would be a useful preparation for New Mexicans to reflect on the history and origins of much of Trump's support as well as the trajectory of his administration.

Overrated Electability

I haven't yet seen the charts about the audience for the third debate, but I'll guess that the numbers tuned in after the first hour plummeted.  Three hours of sound bites is just way too much.  Still, there were some revealing moments and all the candidates managed to make some substantive contributions.

Biden was feisty and loquacious, topping the list for most words spoken.  It seems likely, however, that the only real advantage from that approach was to deny a bit of time to his opponents.  Biden's plans for moving the country forward are unconvincing -- lacking the depth, detail and conviction of most of the other candidates.  He keeps hammering on his connection to the Obama administration while ignoring the fact that Obama chose him as VP because he was unlike Obama -- chosen for his appeal to those Democrat leaners who were vaguely uncomfortable with Obama's race and mildly progressive agenda.

Biden looks physically in good shape standing next to Bernie.  However, Bernie never misses a beat in his delivery, while Biden is constantly struggling to hold on to the thread of his thoughts.  He gropes for words and compensates with inappropriate fill-in terms such as the howler about advising parents to have their children listen to record players.  The reference to curing cancer is a trope going back to the politics of the 1950s; I recall it being common in many campaigns of that era including Nixon's.

In spite of all of the above, Biden could hold on to his lead.  He might even achieve the presidency.  The result of that would be an administration that would be little more than a placeholder for the next demagogue.

The Day After

There has been a lot of discussion in the media over the past week about 9/11, and what happened and how people reacted to the event.  I was thinking today about the day after 9/11.  What changed for me on that next day was the beginning of an obsession about watching the news of the day to get some idea of what was coming next.  Eighteen years later I find myself still in the grip of that hypervigilant awareness.  I check the news many times a day to find out what kind of threat is imminent or in progress.  All too often I find something concerning, sometimes something horrendous like the murder of school children.  In most cases, however, the perpetrators are not some foreign enemy, but American citizens.

The Dem Debate

I'm looking forward to Thursday's debate by the ten Democratic candidates.  Could be a game changer as everyone will be looking to peel off some of Biden's support.  But, three hours?  That is going to take a real marathon effort.  I usually get some help from the team at fivethirtyeight.com with their running commentary on the debaters' performances.  I wish I had that kind of mental agility.  I'm wondering what other strategies people have for sticking it out to the end?

6:00 PM Mountain Time!

Can Trump Ever Do Anything Right?

It seems like the odds are against it.

A lot of people will be pleased by the firing of John Bolton, who as a national security adviser clearly posed a danger to humanity.  It seems that the best thing Trump can be credited with, however, is correcting the mistake of hiring a right wing ideologue to occupy a position that demands unclouded objectivity.  The conclusion is also inescapable that both the hiring and firing had nothing at all to do with Bolton's capabilities and judgment and everything to do with Trump's need to be at the center of uncritical attention.

In regard to the circumstances surrounding Bolton's dismissal it is also clear that Trump bungled what he saw as a great opportunity to be at the center of an historic deal in the ending of the eighteen year conflict in Afghanistan.  It appears that an agreement had been largely hammered out by the diplomats and all that was really needed to complete the deal was an announcement that would sit comfortably with all parties including the Afghan government.  Instead, Trump went for grandstanding at Camp David, which wasted the opportunity as well as losing support even in his own party.

So, while there may be an outside chance that Trump could stumble into doing something to benefit the country and the world, the likelihood of his turning any scenario into a disaster through his narcissism and unpredictability is just too great to tolerate.

Smithsonian Mag

"A Well Regulated Militia"

The NRA version:

Let him play

I see some criticism in the media about Trump playing golf while the country faces multiple emergencies including mass shootings and hurricanes.  That seems short sighted to me.  I say keeping him out on the greens and away from the White House as much as possible is much to be desired.  Whacking around a little ball will help him release some frustration and lessen opportunities to meddle in things he clearly doesn't understand.  Now if we can just figure out a way to take away his cell phone...