Ukraine

The whistleblower report is public and the congressional hearings are under way.  The whistleblower clearly has high level access to White House activities and has conducted a thorough initial investigation, interviewing many individuals with direct knowledge of events around interactions of the President and his administration with Ukrainian officials.

The hearings will bring out many additional details as the people indicated in the report are identified and brought in to testify.  However, the concise report really lays out the major accusations quite well.  The real battles will now be to control the media narrative while also pressuring members of congress to support or oppose impeachment.

The Democrats still need a few more votes to move forward to impeachment.  There are a number of Dem members of congress who have voiced opposition to impeachment, most of whom are in districts with a large contingent of Trump supporters.  A good example is Xochitl Torres Small who narrowly took a seat in southern New Mexico that has long been held by Republicans.  Another notable holdout on impeachment is Tulsi Gabbard* of Hawaii who recently qualified for the third debate.

Helpful commentary on the unfolding Ukraine story is in progress at fivethirtyeight.com.

* "Representative Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii endorsed the impeachment inquiry against President Trump on Friday..." (nytimes)