It seems there is no way to know at this moment what is going to happen about impeachment or the 2020 election. What is obvious, however, is that Trump is spiraling out of control in his responses to the daily challenges he confronts. He spouts a poisonous torrent of daily Twitter posts interspersed with confrontations with the Press full of truculence and name calling. His demeanor is that of a frustrated, inarticulate child.
Some commentators have speculated that Trump is losing his mind. While that cannot be ruled out, it seems more likely that he has just panicked due to losing control of the narrative, even within Foxworld.
Consider the contrast in Trump's behavior when he is in a campaign appearance with his loyal supporters. In those venues he looks confident. He is able there to stick to a very limited set of issues designed to appeal to the fears, frustrations and prejudices of his base. He is able to present an image of being in charge of the nation's course.
Outside of those carefully staged appearances, however, Trump seems unable to sustain any coherent line of thought in response to daily challenges from Congress and the Press. He lies compulsively and often contradicts himself in adjacent sentences. He just cannot seem to shut up when that would clearly be in his own best interest.
Trump's behavior under pressure is in sharp contrast to his Republican predecessors in the Presidency. Think for a moment about how they handled revelations about their lies and illegal behavior. Ike lied about the U2 overflights of the Soviet Union. Reagan lied about arms sales to finance the Contras. Bush fabricated the weapons of mass destruction myth to take us to war with Iraq.
In each of those cases, however, the perpetrator-in-chief knew to keep his mouth closed. They let their Congressional allies carry the defense, and they let the agents of their plots take the rap and go to jail when necessary, knowing that a pardon was always available at term's end.
Nixon, of course, did talk himself out of office, but that was only because the Supreme Court forced the contents of the secret tapes into the open. Trump, in contrast to his predecessors, also seems uniquely incapable of holding onto key advisors and of keeping his Cabinet supporters from being fatally tainted by his misbehavior.
It is interesting to speculate about the calculations that are being made now by Republicans in the House and in the Senate in response to Trump's daily melt-down. As long as Trump could stay in campaign mode, they could fall back on the idea that Trump-will-be-Trump and then forge ahead with their standard operating procedures of cutting taxes for the ultra-rich and slashing benefits for the rest of us.
The Republican leadership is still holding the line against impeachment with the usual techniques of deflection and obfuscation. However, there have been a few tepid criticisms coming out of the red ranks, and there appear to be around thirty Republican Senators who would be very happy to see Trump be brought down if that could be accomplished without their own political demise.
Quite a few Republican congressmen have elected to forego an attempt to hold onto their seats due in large part to the Trump trajectory. It seems very likely that those who plan on remaining in office, in the face of Trump's volatile behavior will focus increasingly on the idea that if Trump were forced out now before the election, they would still have Pence to carry their flag.
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ps: I see now at 10:40 PM that Colbert is covering much of the same territory in his opening monologue. He's funnier. Maybe I should just post links to his show on a daily basis.
