AI, A Caution

 I have had some fun exploring the possibilities of Artificial Intelligence and Large Language Models.  I have mostly played with Google's BARD LLM.  Questions about social and political issues have consistently produced well articulated responses which seemed well grounded in fact and logic.

With those thoughts in mind I decided to see if BARD might help a friend in getting some idea of what would be a reasonable sale price for a very early Leica 1, Model A camera.  Looking at prices on ebay and other sales sources was largely fruitless as prices were all over the map.  It was apparent, however, that a camera like hers that is a standard model without a very low serial number could occasionally be found for as little as $550.  When I posed the question to BARD I received a sale price estimate in the range of $55,000 to $85,000!

I tried a variety of prompts asking for ranges and averages of prices, but BARD insisted on sticking to estimates that appeared to be in the neighborhood of 100 times beyond reality.

My conclusion at this point is that entrusting decisions about issues of economic importance to Artificial Intelligence can be a very risky business.  I don't know if any of the other AI/LLM systems which are currently available might better handle such a task.  It is possible that prompts which are more specific and better formed could get more sensible responses even from BARD, but at this point it would take a lot to get me to entrust crucial decisions to any such source.

AI: Pros and Cons

 Aljazeera hosts The Bottom Line, a program which offers unusually thoughtful discussions of current issues and events.  Recently, the possible threats and potential benefits of Artificial Intelligence were considered there by two experts in the field, Jason Lanier and Jaan Tallinn.

Pro

Con

New Kid

 Claude 2, like Google Bard, is free to use, though it does require registration with your full name.  It claims a more up-to-date body of training data.

I thought this new Large Language Model handled my initial test question quite nimbly:

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Compare the prevalence of conspiracy theories in U.S. political discourse to that of other democracies.

There are a few key points to consider when comparing conspiracy theories in US political discourse versus other democracies:

The US has a long history of conspiracy theories intertwined with politics, going back to the anti-Masonic movements of the 19th century and fears of Catholic infiltration. This provides fertile ground for new conspiracy narratives to take hold.

American exceptionalism and distrust of government power feeds into conspiratorial thinking - the idea that "they" are out to undermine American greatness. This is less prevalent in cultures with more collective/communal values.

The two-party polarization in the US exacerbates an "us versus them" mentality. Hyper-partisanship makes each side prone to believing negative conspiracy theories about their opposition.

The US system of checks and balances, separation of powers, and freedom of speech makes it harder to clamp down on misinformation. Conspiracy theories spread readily on social media.

Right-wing media ecosystem in the US propagates conspiracy narratives, for example about Obama's birthplace or the 2020 election. This has less equivalence in other democracies.

Comparatively, countries like the UK or Australia have had fewer high-profile political conspiracy theories get broad traction. However, the internet age is impacting all open democracies.

So in summary, there are cultural and systemic factors that provide fertile ground for conspiracy theories to take hold in the US political mainstream more so than peer nations. However, other democracies are impacted too by misinformation trends in the digital age.