... and the probability of detection.
Trump's justification for imposing tariffs on Canada is to force reduction of cross-border ingress of fentanyl and undocumented immigrants. The contribution of Canada to both of those unauthorized imports is 1%. So, even if Trump's initiative in regard to Canada was 100% effective, the impact would affect 1% of the purported problem. In exchange for the unlikely achievement of that outcome both countries will probably see catastrophic inflation and job losses. But that is not the elephant.
The real elephant (driver) in the case of fentanyl, of course, is demand. The real questions worth exploring are why the demand for illicit drugs is so high in the U.S. and what would be required to effectively reduce that demand. Better support for behavioral health services seems a much more plausible way to attack the substance abuse issue. What do you suppose the chances are that such a policy will be supported by Trump and RFK Jr. ?
See:
What is motivating Trump’s reckless trade war?
Robert Reich
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